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Monday, February 28, 2011

Fun With Sabermetrics - Day 3 - Inherited Runs

So this one started out as a Fun With Sabermetrics that would pertain to the mystical world of relief pitchers, but somewhere during my research it became more interesting to document just how bad pre-2010 C.J. Wilson was.
So let's first start out by explaining the sabermetric stat for the day, it's easy enough to understand, and it's pretty much the stat by which all relief pitchers are going to be measured in the future. IR, or Inherited Runners, is the number of runners on the bases when a given pitcher enters the game in relief. IS, or Inherited Score, is the number of these runners that score on the given relief pitcher. IS%, therefore, is the percentage of Inherited Runs who subsequently scored. Because, as you know, these runs wouldn't count against this pitcher's ERA, this stat is needed to have some semblance of an idea of how well relief pitchers do when they come into a game with men on.

And boy. Between the 2006 to 2008 seasons, Ceej Wilson was just bad.
2006 C.J. inherited 27 runs and let 9 of them score. That's 33% for all you math majors. He combined that with 4 losses in relief and a blown save for good measure.

In 2007 he got a little better. He inherited 47 and let 15 score, resulting in an IS% of 32, but he only had one loss in relief and two blown saves and had a very nice ERA of 3.03.

And then 2008 happened. 2008 was the year I began to shit my pants whenever C.J. entered the game. It's also the year he gave up a salami to Richie Sexson and then proceeded to toss the ball to Ron Washington when Wash came out to yank him. And yank him he did. Yanked him right back onto the mound and said hand me the ball like a big boy. Wash-1. C.J.-0.

In 2008 the Rangers tested C.J. and put him in the closing role, where he blew 4 saves in 28 opportunities. His ERA? 6.02. Eesh. His IS%? 50. Eesh. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which we will learn in a future FWS is essentially how many games a player wins or loses)? Negative 1.5. Eeeeeeesh. But his soul patch? Soulful as ever, motherfucker.

2008 is when I began to express the theory that he was only on the team because he was pretty, and the team was marketing teenaged girls and trying to get them to come out to the ballpark and watch C.J. blow leads.

But you know the rest. In 2009 he did better. Though he still blew 4 saves and lost 6 in relief, he brought his IS% down to 26 and had a very good ERA of 2.81, good enough for the Rangers to try him at starter in 2010, where he somehow, inexplicably, became my favorite Rangers pitcher, and the one I wanted to see on the mound for a big game (yes, more than Cliff Lee).

Beyond C.J., the Rangers have some pretty good relievers with some pretty good IS%s. Neftali's was 22 in 2009 and a whopping 6 in 2010. Tony Romo look-alike Darren O'Day's is 28% through a season and a half with the Rangers.

As for the all-time greats in IS%: whatever. It's a bunch of relievers you've never heard of so I won't bore you with it. So. As filler for the rest of this post, here's a list of all the New York Yankees I hope die tonight:

All of them.


Fin.

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